Giro d'Italia 2025The favourites in the TOUR check

Thomas Goldmann

 · 06.05.2025

Favourites for the Giro d'Italia: Primož Roglič
Photo: Getty Images/ Bob Kupbens/Icon Sportswire
Who will win the pink jersey at the Giro d'Italia 2025? TOUR takes a look at the favourites for the Tour of Italy and analyses their chances.

Topics in this article

Giro d'Italia 2025: The most important facts in brief

The TOUR favourites by stars

***** Primož Roglič, Juan Ayuso

**** Adam Yates

*** Michael Storer, Egan Bernal, Mikel Landa, Richard Carapaz

** Thymen Arensman, Antonio Tiberi, Giulio Ciccone

* Lorenzo Fortunato, Derek Gee, Simon Yates, Romain Bardet, David Gaudu, Tom Pidcock, Daniel Felipe Martínez, Jai Hindley, Jay Vine


* The more stars a driver receives, the higher his chances are rated


The favourites in the TOUR-Check

***** Primož Roglič (Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe)

Primož RogličPhoto: Getty Images/ Bob Kupbens/Icon SportswirePrimož Roglič

The Slovenian will do as his compatriot Tadej Pogačar did last year. He contests the double of the Giro d'Italia and Tour de France. While Roglič will probably only have a chance of winning the yellow jersey in France if Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard weaken or even drop out, the Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe captain will start in Italy as one of two top favourites with the best chances of winning his second Giro after 2023 in the absence of the two top stars. At 35 years old and with five Grand Tour victories under his belt, Roglič has huge experience and obviously still has the legs, as he recently proved at the Tour of Catalunya when he impressively put his biggest Giro rival Juan Ayuso in his place. Around him, the Raublinger racing team is sending a five-star line-up into the race. With Jai Hindley (Giro winner 2022) and Daniel Felipe Martínez (Giro runner-up 2024), Roglič has excellent help in the high mountains. One argument against Roglič is that he crashes very often in Grand Tours and possibly his advanced age.

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***** Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates - XRG)

Juan AyusoPhoto: Getty Images/Tim De WaeleJuan Ayuso
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While Roglič is already an advanced cyclist at the age of 35, 22-year-old Juan Ayuso's big time could be yet to come. The Spaniard has everything it takes to win a Grand Tour: he is an outstanding climber, time trialist and team leader. He has already proven this this season with his superior victory at Tirreno-Adriatico. In 2022, Ayuso finished third on the podium of the Vuelta a España at the age of 19. This time, he is aiming for the top spot on the podium. UAE Team Emirates - XRG is providing him with an extremely strong squad to achieve this. However, it remains to be seen whether they will harmonise well. In the past, the riders of the team from the Emirates have not always pulled together in the absence of Pogačar. Another argument against Ayuso is his lack of experience compared to Roglič.

Primož Roglič and Juan AyusoPhoto: Getty Images/Josep LAGO / AFPPrimož Roglič and Juan Ayuso

**** Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates - XRG)

Adam YatesPhoto: Getty Images/Szymon GruchalskiAdam Yates

The fact that the co-captain is still considered one of the top favourites shows just how good the UAE squad is. Since his move from INEOS to the Emirates in 2023, the Briton has often acted as a noble helper for Pogačar. The 32-year-old could play exactly the same role at the Giro - only this time for Ayuso. However, if the young Spaniard doesn't perform as planned, it could be Yates' turn. It is also possible that in a close race, UAE will try to get the better of Roglič with Ayuso and Yates. Yates finished seven of his 14 Grand Tours in the top 10 - and even finished on the podium at the 2023 Tour de France. At 1.73 metres tall and 58 kilograms, he is one of the best climbers in the world, but has certain weaknesses in the time trial.

*** Michael Storer (Tudor Pro Cycling Team)

Michael StorerPhoto: Getty Images/Tim De WaeleMichael Storer

Before the season, hardly anyone would have counted the 28-year-old Australian among the favourites for the Giro d'Italia. However, his performance at the Tour of the Alps in April, which he won in an extremely convincing manner, puts him in this role. Storer demonstrated his outstanding climbing skills there. Now he has to show that he can do the same over three weeks. With 10th place at the Giro d'Italia 2024, Storer has already hinted at his potential.

*** Egan Bernal (INEOS Grenadiers)

Egan BernalPhoto: Getty Images/Gongora/NurPhotoEgan Bernal

Egan Bernal also has great potential. The Colombian has already won the 2021 Giro d'Italia. Around eight months later, the man from Zipaquirá crashed into a stationary bus during a training ride in his home country of Colombia. He suffered numerous broken bones and injuries to his spine. Bernal did not give up and fought his way back to the top of the world. He even celebrated victories in the time trial and road race at the Colombian championships in early 2025. However, the road back was always accompanied by setbacks, such as a broken collarbone at the Clásica Jaén in February, which affected Bernal's preparation for the Giro d'Italia. The 28-year-old comes to the start of the Tour of Italy in Albania with seventh place in the Tour of Catalonia, where he showed good signs, and extensive preparation at altitude in Colombia. It remains to be seen what that will achieve. In full form, the exceptional climber is a potential Giro winner.

*** Mikel Landa (Soudal Quick-Step)

Mikel LandaPhoto: Getty Images/JOSE JORDAN/STR/AFPMikel Landa

Mikel Landa has experienced a second spring since switching from Bahrain - Victorious to Soudal Quick-Step at the start of 2024. Last year, he finished fifth in the Tour de France and eighth in the Vuelta. Now the 35-year-old is captaining the Giro. In the mountains, it will be difficult to take significant time off the Basque. His Achilles heel is the two time trials at the Giro.

*** Richard Carapaz (EF Education - EasyPost)

Richard CarapazPhoto: Getty Images/Szymon GruchalskiRichard Carapaz

Richard Carapaz is a similarly outstanding climber to Landa. The mountain king of the 2024 Tour de France focused primarily on chasing stage wins. At the Vuelta in September, the Ecuadorian narrowly missed the podium in fourth place. Carapaz has already won the Giro d'Italia in 2019. Whether he can achieve the same feat again six years later at the age of 32 depends on his form and whether he - like Landa - can survive the time trials with an acceptable gap.

** Thymen Arensman (INEOS Grenadiers)

Thymen ArensmanPhoto: Getty Images/Tim de WaeleThymen Arensman

Together with Bernal, the Dutchman forms a double lead at INEOS Grenadiers. He finished sixth in the Giro in 2023 and 2024. The 25-year-old recently won a stage at the Tour of the Alps and finished second overall. Arensman is very solid in the individual time trial and in the mountains. Only when it comes to the really steep ramps does he have a slight handicap with his height of 1.90 metres and body weight of around 70 kilograms.

** Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain - Victorious)

Antonio TiberiPhoto: Getty Images/Tim De WaeleAntonio Tiberi

The 23-year-old is one of three hopes of the Italians for a top place in the overall standings. These hopes are not unfounded. After all, Tiberi won the young rider classification at the Giro in 2024 and finished fifth overall. He achieved this with consistent performances in the mountains and in the time trial. The captain of Bahrain - Victorious made a strong start to the season with third place at Tirreno-Adriatico. However, he had to pull out of the Tour of the Alps early, which is why there is a question mark over his form.

** Giulio Ciccone (Lidl - Trek)

Giulio CicconePhoto: Getty Images/Tim De WaeleGiulio Ciccone

The Azzurri's second class hopeful is a little older at 30. Ciccone's list of successes is correspondingly longer, having won the Tour de France in 2023, a feat he also achieved four years earlier in the Giro d'Italia. In terms of the overall classification, however, the Italian often lacked stamina. In 13 Grand Tours, eleventh place at the 2024 Tour de France was his best finish to date. He recently proved his excellent form with second place at Liège-Bastogne-Liège.

* The outsiders

In addition to the aforementioned favourites, there is a whole series of riders who are likely to achieve a top result. This is led by the third Italian who is likely to have classification ambitions: Lorenzo Fortunato (XDS Astana Team). Twelfth in last year's Giro, he has made another leap in his performance this season, as he recently showed with fourth place in the Tour de Romandie. Derek Gee (Israel - Premier Tech) is also aiming for further progress. The Canadian was ninth in the 2024 Tour de France and made his mark on the 2023 Giro d'Italia with four second stage places and second place in the mountains and points classification. In the absence of Jonas Vingegaard, Visma | Lease a Bike is sending Simon Yates into the race as the man for the overall classification. The 2018 Vuelta winner was on the verge of winning the Giro in the same year before suffering a terrible collapse on the Colle delle Finestre. Now 32 years old, the Brit wants to do better on the gravel mountain this time.

With Romain Bardet (Team Picnic PostNL), another old champion has joined the start list for the Giro d'Italia. The 34-year-old Frenchman will end his career after the Critérium du Dauphine in June and can ride the Giro free. At 28 years of age, Bardet's compatriot David Gaudu (Groupama - FDJ) still has large parts of his career ahead of him. In the form of the 2022 Tour de France, where he finished fourth, he would be a candidate for victory. However, Gaudu's results so far this season do not offer much hope. Tom Pidcock (Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team) has been in much better form than Gaudu so far this year. With victories at the AlUla Tour and the Ruta del Sol, the 25-year-old is back on the road to success. The question for Pidcock: Overall classification or stage wins? That will probably only be decided in the first few days of the Tour of Italy.

After Pidcock, we still have three substitutes on our list. Starting with Daniel Felipe Martínez (Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe). Last year's runner-up will start the race behind captain Primož Roglič and could step into the breach if the Slovenian drops out or has problems. The same applies to Jai Hindley, who won the 2022 Giro d'Italia. The Australian will also be at the service of Roglič, but would also be an option for the classification. Just like UAE Team Emirates - XRG Jay Vine. The former Zwift Academy winner rode a very strong Tour de Romandie with third place, but will probably take over helper duties for Juan Ayuso.

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