One record-breaking season is over, the next is on the horizon. 2023 was dominated by the superior, even overpowering Team Jumbo-Visma. The Dutch team won all three Grand Tours, as well as five of the twelve smaller World Tour races. However, because the transfer season in the autumn was, well, "eccentric", with Primoz Roglic leaving the team due to internal competitive pressure, among other things, there are now signs of a spectacular Tour de France 2024 on: Four Grand Tour winners will compete for the cycling crown in four different teams. To the permanent rivals Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard is joined by newcomer Remco Evenepoel with merits from the Tour of Spain and World Championships. For the first time since 2020, when he lost the Tour to Pogacar on the penultimate day, Primoz Roglic will - provided nothing intervenes - line up as the undisputed team captain for the Grand Loop and challenge the youth trio.
"This will be a mega tour. The constellation is totally exciting and great for our sport," said a jubilant Bora boss Ralph Denk, who was obviously able to make the Slovenian, who was keen to change, the best offer at the right time - when Roglic was possibly beginning to shy away from the idea of merging his racing team with Soudal - Quick Step. This merger would have united Vingegaard, Roglic and Vuelta winner Sepp Kuss with Evenepoel. This would have drastically reduced the Slovenian's prospects of an unrestricted captaincy in France.
Ralph Denk on the transfer of Primoz Roglic
Looking back, however, Ralph Denk believes the prospects for his biggest transfer coup since the signing of Peter Sagan are good - even without the rumours about the merger, which were mainly reported to the Dutch portal Wielerflits for a few weeks and attracted worldwide attention. He explains: "I think the chances would have been similar. Primoz simply wanted to focus on the Tour de France again. Jumbo-Visma has Vingegaard as a two-time winner. It's understandable that they are also riding for him a third and fourth time. That's why Primoz's desire to leave Jumbo shouldn't really have anything to do with the merger rumours."
Budgets in professional cycling
However, the rumours certainly accelerated the negotiations. The fact that Roglic did not go to Ineos Grenadiers, the dominant team of the past decade, but to Bora-Hansgrohe is evidence of a change in the balance of power. The British racing team with the highest budget (around 50 million euros per year) no longer automatically attracts the best drivers. Money alone does not win races. After the 2023 season, UAE Team Emirates will occupy First place in the UCI team rankings and has the second-highest budget of the World Tour teams at around 35 million euros. However, the most important races were won by Jumbo-Visma, whose estimated budget is around 25 to 30 million euros. The fact that it is not just money that determines success is a good sign for the sport - even if the past season makes it clear that teams with annual budgets of significantly less than 20 million euros have little chance of winning. This also makes it difficult for them to offer their sponsors good advertising space, which makes financing much more difficult. The overall structure of professional cycling on the road will remain a fragile affair in 2024.
Limits to growth: the teams
The racing teams are the backbone of road cycling. At the same time, they are its Achilles heel; as they do not participate in TV money and licence fees, unlike in football, for example, but are solely dependent on the ability and willingness of their sponsors to pay, budgets vary extremely, are rarely secured in the long term and are unevenly distributed. The consequences of this were particularly evident during the autumn in the form of wild merger games and licence surrender scenarios. Jumbo-Visma, the most successful team of the season, seemed to fear that it would no longer be able to continue at the same level. "They hit a brick wall because they had too much success, because the money they spent on it could no longer be recouped on the sponsorship market. That's why they tried the merger," analyses Jonathan Vaughters, Head of Racing at EF Education EasyPost. Growing by merging because growth through sponsors no longer seemed realistic?
Expensive racing drivers
However, Jumbo-Visma also found itself in this predicament due to the rise in rider salaries. It is true that the big names of the professional cycling circuit ride in other teams - Tadej Pogacar with 6 million euros at UAE Team Emirates, Chris Froome with 5.5 million euros at Israel-Premier Tech, Remco Evenepoel with around 4 million euros at Soudal - Quick Step. At Jumbo-Visma (2024 under the name Visma | Lease a Bike), Wout van Aert receives €2.2 million per year. Roglic's salary is said to have been three million. It is unlikely that Vingegaard remained below his team-mates when he recently extended his contract. And Sepp Kuss's management certainly had to put in an extra shovel after his Vuelta victory.
However, the race for ever higher fees is increasingly being criticised. Bosses of medium-sized racing teams such as Vaughters and Ralph Denk have long been in favour of budget ceilings in the region of 20 to 30 million euros. This should lead to more equal opportunities.
Bora-Hansgrohe in particular has strengthened its ranks with Primoz Roglic. Jumbo-Visma is bringing talented youngsters from its own ranks up to the World Tour team, while UAE Team Emirates has bought in talent. Soudal - Quick Step signed former Giro third and Tour fourth Mikel Landa (from Bahrain-Victorious) as well as Gianni Moscon (previously Team Astana), who is tough on speed and mountains, for the Grand Tour ambitions of their solitaire Evenepoel.
Transfer balance sheet
The big loser among the transfers is Ineos Grenadiers. A whole series of solid cyclists were sold: Former Giro winner Tao Geoghegan Hart to Lidl-Trek, Daniel Martinez moves to Bora, Pavel Sivakov joins UAE Team Emirates, and 22-year-old British tour talent Ben Tulett joins arch-rival Jumbo-Visma of all teams. However, no newcomers who can immediately fight for podium places in major tours have moved into the vacant positions. The team still has to rely on the now 37-year-old Geraint Thomas and the convalescent Egan Bernal. In the past season, the latter was still far from his former level, at which he won the Tour de France in 2019 and the Giro in 2021 before almost dying in a serious accident during training at the start of 2022. The lack of success in races and in the composition of the team is likely to be the main motive for the rather brusque separation from team manager Rod Ellingworth.
On the other hand, the petro-dollar financed team Jayco-AlUla is on the winning side. The Australian team has strengthened its already strong sprinter squad around Dylan Groenewegen and Michael Matthews with Caleb Ewan (from Lotto-Dstny) and Max Walscheid (previously Cofidis). In contrast, the attempt by dsm-firmenich-PostNL to get back into the sprint finals with new signing Fabio Jakobsen looks almost modest - although the Dutch team around the German road captain John Degenkolb Victories are sorely needed. According to the UCI team ranking, the team is currently in 18th place, the last place that guarantees a new World Tour licence at the end of 2025. Astana and Arkea-B&B Hotels are currently relegated from the top category.
