How tough is Paris-Roubaix? Race analysis with performance data

Robert Kühnen

 · 03.04.2024

How tough is Paris-Roubaix? Race analysis with performance dataPhoto: Getty Images/Tim De Waele
Marcus Burghardt at Paris-Roubaix 2012
Paris-Roubaix is not only notorious as one of the toughest cycling races in the world because of its cobblestones - it is also an extreme challenge in terms of pedalling performance. We show the performance data of former professional cyclist Marcus Burghardt from 2012.

Paris-Roubaix: The Powerfile of Marcus Burghardt 2012

The performance data of Marcus Burghardt, who provided us with the recording of his SRM power meter from 2012 2015 for analysis, reveals just how hard the cobbled classic is ridden. The former classics specialist ended his career in 2022 and is now Vice President of Contract Sports at the German Cycling Federation (BDR). Ahead of Paris-Roubaix 2024, we are taking this opportunity to show once again what a professional cyclist has to achieve in the "Queen of the Classics".

Image 1: Complete recording of Marcus Burghardt's performance at Paris-Roubaix 2012

SRM analysisPhoto: TOUR

The original SRM script shows a wild jagged profile. Constant changes in power and speed make the graphic unclear in the long shot. The very high average power output of 308.5 W over the entire duration of the Paris-Roubaix race is remarkable. This is significantly more than in typical professional races. The energy expenditure was a whopping 6804 kilojoules. The true physiological load is even higher, as the 50 kilometres of cobbles shake the muscles mercilessly - an additional strain on the muscles that is not shown in the graph. The true energy expenditure is also correspondingly higher. Marcus Burghardt finishes the race in 36th place, 7:46 minutes behind the winner Tom Boonen. Burghardt's placing is nevertheless remarkably good because he worked hard from the first minute of the race for his captain Allessandro Ballan (3rd place) and Thor Hushovd (14th place).

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Image 2: The approach to the cobblestone passages

SRM dataPhoto: TOUR

The last kilometres before the individual cobblestone sections are ridden in the style of a sprint finale. The speed increases to over 60 km/h in places. The aim is to get as far ahead of the peloton as possible in the difficult sections and thus minimise the risk of crashing. The excerpt from the ride description shows three such acceleration phases.

Figure 3: The SRM distribution chart

SRM dataPhoto: TOUR

It shows that Burghardt's most frequent pedalling power is between 300 and 350 W. At around 360 W there is a small jump downwards in the curve - here you can surmise Marcus Burghardt's continuous power limit. According to his own statement, the professional cyclist was not completely healthy on this day - and was therefore unable to call up his usual performance. What makes the classic really tough is that 36 per cent of the pedalling power is generated in the range above 360 watts.

Figure 4: The analysis in Golden Cheetah*

SRM dataPhoto: TOUR

The race gets very fast right after the start and only calms down after an hour and a half, when the first breakaway group gets away from the rest of the field. In this first hour and a half, which is marked as an interval, Burghardt is fully involved: The average power is 334 watts, the effective power is 361 watts (effective power means weighted average value, which rates power peaks higher than low power portions. This value corresponds more closely to the true load than the normal average power; editor's note). The average speed is highest in this phase of the race: it is 47.9 km/h. Burghardt also rides the hardest acceleration (with 1429 watts) in this early phase. Burghardt's commitment to the team ruins his personal chance of victory. Anyone who rides so hard at the start of such a long race will not have enough fuel left in the tank at the end to keep up with the decisive attacks. The strong classics rider Burghardt becomes a victim of his outstanding team, in which he rides as a helper, not as captain.

Figure 5: The maximum power curve

SRM dataPhoto: TOUR

Here you can see the peak values of pedalling performance - broken down by time intervals (from short to long). For a short time (up to two minutes), a person can do much more than for a long time. As a classic rider, you have to be able to do both: ride fast for a long time (the flat part of the bend should be as high as possible) and really accelerate for a short time.

Figure 6: Performance values - smoothed

SRM dataPhoto: TOUR

The smoothing of the power values makes it easier to recognise the course of the race. The graph shows the moving average over 20 minutes and over four minutes - as well as starts with over 700 watts for at least 20 seconds. The hard effort at the start and the consolidation phase after the first breakaway group are clearly visible. The decisive phase of the race is the final third. Here the power drops slightly. If a rider is competing for victory, this curve increases towards the end of a professional race. The number of long hard starts is low - compared to data from other classics. This is probably also due to the very flat course profile. Here, short acceleration is often enough to get back into the slipstream, while the pros have to mobilise a lot of power on the climbs, even in the slipstream, to keep up. The small fluctuation range of the four-minute moving average shows that Burghardt rode the race evenly. The power input is almost like an extra-long time trial.

Picture 7: For comparison - data of a top rider from the Amstel Gold Race 2009

SRM dataPhoto: TOUR

Christian Knees rode to a top result at the Amstel Gold Race in 2009. In the end, he finished eleventh, eight seconds behind the winner Sergei Ivanov. Knees, then in the service of Team Milram, showed a significantly lower average power output of 270 watts than Burghardt at Paris-Roubaix 2012, but otherwise rode harder throughout. Our picture 7 shows: After a cautious start, the race gets tougher and tougher in the finale - with more starts and increasing power. Great variance, recognisable by the moving average over four minutes, which has strong swings. This is what a typical race for victory looks like. Marcus Burghardt, on the other hand, essentially rode a time trial in the service of the team at Paris-Roubaix 2012. He invested the most energy at the beginning. The analysis shows little variance (spread) in performance, relatively few attacks.

* Golden Cheetah: Open source software for analysing performance data

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