2024 OlympicsThe favourites for the road race in the TOUR-Check

Andreas Kublik

 · 02.08.2024

The favourites for the road race at the Olympics: Lotte Kopecky
Photo: Getty Images/Dario Belingheri
Who will win gold in the road race at the 2024 Olympics in Paris? On the classic course in the longest Olympic women's competition to date, world champion Lotte Kopecky is the first contender for gold, challenging the strong Dutch team led by Demi Vollering.

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The most important facts in brief

  • Women's Olympic road race on Sunday, 4 August 2024
  • Start time: 2:00 pm
  • Start and finish: Trocadéro
  • Route: 157.6 kilometres long, 1650 metres in altitude
  • Max. four starters per country, field of participants max. 90 starters

The TOUR favourites by stars

***** Lotte Kopecky

**** Grace Brown, Demi Vollering

*** Elisa Longo Borghini, Kasia Niewiadoma, Marianne Vos

** Juliette Labous, Liane Lippert, Lorena Wiebes

* Kim Cadzow, Elise Chabbey, Elizabeth Deignan, Kristen Faulkner

Olympics: women's cycling highlight since 1984

Traditionally, the Olympic road race is the highlight of women's cycling. Unlike the men's race, there was no explicit separation of amateurs and professionals in the past. The premiere in 1984 in Los Angeles was won by the US-American Connie Carpenter-Phinney. The Dutchwoman Marianne Vos (2012) and Austria's sensational Olympic champion Anna Kiesenhofer are also on the start list this time.



The record route in detail

On Sunday, 4 August 2024, the famous Trocadéro square in Paris will decide who will succeed Austrian Anna Kiesenhofer as Olympic champion. For the last 59 kilometres, the women's course is identical to the one used by the men to determine the medal winners the day before. The course through the centre of Paris takes in two and a half laps over five hills north of the Seine - including three ascents of Montmartre and, after the third ascent from the Sacré Coeur basilica, straight towards the finish line at the Trocadéro. At 157.6 kilometres, the competition in Paris is the longest women's Olympic race to date. However, the run-up to the city centre course is significantly shorter for the women than for the men.

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Is a sensation possible again?

But brevity is the spice of life: The chances of success from an early breakaway group are good. Kiesenhofer's sensational Olympic victory three years ago on the mountainous course around the Fuji Speedway showed the special nature of the Olympic cycling race: because the teams are allowed to send a maximum of four starters into the race (at world championships there are seven to eight starters for the top nations), the race is almost impossible to control, even for the top nations. Three years ago, everyone was looking at the top favourites from the Netherlands when it came to organising the pursuit of a leading group that had already formed around Kiesenhofer shortly after the start. Because there was obviously no clear division of roles in the Dutch team and too little communication about the course of the race (there is no radio communication between the racers and the sports directors at the Olympic Games), the par force ride of the outsider Kiesenhofer was successful. Something similar is conceivable at the races in Paris - even if everyone has been warned since Tokyo.

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Five-star menu: The Olympic favourites in detail

***** Lotte Kopecky (Belgium)

Lotte KopeckyPhoto: Getty Images/Dario BelingheriLotte Kopecky

Lotte Kopecky appears quiet, almost shy. But she harbours great energy and ambition. The 28-year-old Belgian proved this last year when she rode to solo victory at the World Championships in Glasgow with an explosive start. The course in Paris, which is similar to last year's World Championships course, should suit the sprint-strong classics specialist. She could become the first Olympic road race champion to come from the cycling nation of Belgium. Her advantage: her leading role in the four-man Belgian team is undisputed.

**** Demi Vollering (Netherlands)

Demi VolleringPhoto: picture alliance / ASSOCIATED PRESS / Ricardo MazalanDemi Vollering

The winner of the 2023 Tour de France doesn't look as strong this year as she did last year. The short climbs on the Olympic course suit her less than top favourite Lotte Kopecky, with whom she rides together in the professional racing team SD Worx. But will the ever-ambitious Marianne Vos and top sprinter Lorena Wiebes help her team-mate, who is currently the best all-rounder in women's cycling? The form seems to be right, even if Vollering's fifth place in the individual time trial was rather disappointing. "I actually rode very good wattages," said Vollering after the battle against the clock and added: "Maybe that was even my best time trial ever. I'm especially happy because the course was so flat." Vollering likes mountains - but will Montmartre be enough to make the difference? And will there be a clear division of roles and real teamwork in the Dutch team this time as a lesson from Tokyo?

Fierce battle: Demi Vollering (front) and Lotte Kopecky at the World Championships in Glasgow 2023Photo: picture alliance / RothFierce battle: Demi Vollering (front) and Lotte Kopecky at the World Championships in Glasgow 2023

**** Grace Brown (Australia)

Grace BrownPhoto: picture alliance / REUTERS / Paul ChildsGrace Brown

It could be a last great feat of strength: At the end of this season, Grace Brown wants to call it a day with professional cycling. "I've made a lot of sacrifices to compete at the highest level. I want to finish on a high. It's worth a lot to win gold here. It's time to go back to my family in Australia," said the 32-year-old Australian after her in the individual time trial She had beaten all her rivals by around one and a half minutes and was even faster than some of the men on the same course. Before retiring in Australia, she would of course like to win gold again. No woman has ever won gold in both road races. The powerhouse from Down Under can also handle tough one-day races, as she proved in her victory at Liège-Bastogne-Liège at the end of April.

*** Elisa Longo Borghini (Italy)

Elisa Longo BorghiniPhoto: picture alliance / ZUMAPRESS.com / Elena VizzocaElisa Longo Borghini

The outcome of the Olympic cycling race may be uncertain. But you can almost bet on it: At some point during the almost 158 kilometres, you will see an attack from a rider in blue: Elisa Longo Borghini is the embodiment of aggression in women's cycling. This is certainly also due to the fact that sprinting is her greatest, perhaps only, weakness. If the cyclist from Team Lidl-Trek rides conspicuously defensively, this should be an unmistakable sign that the Squadra Azzurra is working towards a medal for the sprint-strong Elisa Balsamo, who became world champion in 2021 on a demanding course in Leuven. Longo Borghini is a trump card for Italy because she is not only an outstanding individualist on the road bike, but also a prime example of how you can put your own strength at the service of the team in cycling. This year, with victories in the Tour of Flanders and the Giro d'Italia, she proved that she is now at the height of her powers at the age of 32.

*** Katarzyna "Kasia" Niewiadoma (Poland)

Kasia NiewiadomaPhoto: Getty Images/Luc ClaessenKasia Niewiadoma

The attack-minded Pole should not be left out of the favourites. The 29-year-old's riding style often seems impetuous and tactically ill-conceived. The third-placed rider in the 2023 Tour de France and reigning gravel world champion can definitely handle difficult terrain and long solos. Niewiadoma is probably most likely to be successful with her usual head-through-the-wall tactics under the special circumstances of the Olympic road race. She can get good tips from her close family circle: She lives with US ex-pro Taylor Phinney, whose mother Connie Carpenter-Phinney was the first female Olympic road race champion in Los Angeles in 1984.

*** Marianne Vos (Netherlands)

Marianne VosPhoto: picture alliance / ANP / Marcel van HoornMarianne Vos

She just doesn't get tired: the now 37-year-old Dutchwoman first became world road champion in 2006 and Olympic champion in London in 2012. But the way she snatched victory from her young compatriot Lorena Wiebes in the final sprint at the Amstel Gold Race last April showed that Marianne Vos is also a force to be reckoned with this year, in which the strong sprinter and tactically astute racer already has seven victories to her name this season.

** Juliette Labous (France)

Juliette LabousPhoto: Getty Images/Loic VenanceJuliette Labous

She carries the hopes of her compatriots on her shoulders. However, the 25-year-old Frenchwoman, who earns her money with the dsm-firmenich PostNL team, is more of a candidate for long mountains than for the undulating terrain in the centre of Paris. But will the cheers from the fans at the side of the course give her a few extra watts?

** Liane Lippert (Germany)

Liane LippertPhoto: picture alliance/dpa/Belga / David PintensLiane Lippert

She will be the woman for whom her colleagues in the German national team will ride: However, Liane Lippert has had a difficult time. In winter, she suffered a fatigue fracture that took a long time to heal. At the Giro d'Italia a few weeks ago, however, she proved with a stage win that she is well on the way back to top form. She is Germany's strongest rider in medium-difficulty one-day races. She has two strong helpers at her side in the form of the speedy German champion Franziska Koch and the enduring former ski mountaineer Antonia Niedermaier.

** Lorena Wiebes (Netherlands)

Lorena WiebesPhoto: Getty Images/Luc ClaessenLorena Wiebes

Rumour has it that there is a "Plan Wiebes" in the Dutch team. But: It is not an Olympic course for pure sprinters, according to most experts. This speaks against Lorena Wiebes, who is undisputedly the fastest woman in road cycling, but is not necessarily a winner in tough one-day races. The strongest and fastest in the peloton will probably only have a chance in Paris if they are unconditionally supported by a large team. The problem is that the teams at the Olympics are only half the size of those at the World Championships - and unconditional mutual support has not been a feature of the Dutch team in recent years.

* The outsiders

Anna Kiesenhofer's victory was a surprise that may never be repeated in the same way. But the Olympic road race, which has to be completed over a long distance with unusually small teams, favoured lone riders and successes from very early attacks. Because the Swiss rider Marlen Reusser cancelled her Olympic start in Paris due to illness, her compatriot Elise Chabbey even more freedom than she already takes in almost every race with her attacks. The doctor just needs a little more luck for one of her countless attacks to finally lead to a big success. Also Elizabeth Deignan can do that, as she showed in her extreme solo to win Paris-Roubaix 2021; the US American Kristen Faulkner who has often had to be caught again with great difficulty by her rivals. And finally, you should also keep an eye on the up-and-coming New Zealander Kim Cadzow (22), who probably only lacks the explosiveness to finish higher up in the favourites' rankings.

Andreas Kublik has been travelling the world's race courses as a professional sports expert for TOUR for a quarter of a century - from the Ironman in Hawaii to countless world championships from Australia to Qatar and the Tour de France as a permanent business trip destination. A keen cyclist himself with a penchant for suffering - whether it's mountain bike marathons, the Ötztaler or a painful self-awareness trip on the Paris-Roubaix pavé.

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