The potential analysis was commissioned by the Allgemeiner Deutscher Fahrrad-Club. TOUR spoke to Dr Claus Doll, head of the study.
TOUR: What is special about your study on cycling?
Dr Claus Doll: In contrast to traditional forecasting methods, we have included social science data. We looked at how people react to better cycle path facilities. It's all about easily navigable networks, perceived safety and comfort when cycling. This doesn't play such a big role when driving a car or using public transport; they get into a car or train and just make sure they get from A to B as easily as possible.
TOUR: So the actual potential has always been underestimated?
Dr Claus Doll: That's exactly the case and it's not just our assessment. You can also see from the Bicycle Monitor, which is surveyed every two years by the Sinus Institute, that the perceived safety and quality of cycling in the municipality plays a very big role in whether people dare to cycle or not.
TOUR: In the ADFC study on cycling, you say that we need to triple the number of cycle paths in eleven years - does that sound like utopia?
Dr Claus Doll: You're right about that. That's why we didn't see this study as a forecast, but rather as an analysis of potential. What would happen if we managed to expand the cycling infrastructure in the same way as in large parts of the Netherlands? How would the Germans react then?
TOUR: The local authorities currently have tight budgets - is it a lack of money?
Dr Claus Doll: Around one third of the expansion costs are borne by the federal, state and local authorities. However, the local authorities have to implement it and, like many sectors, the local authorities have the problem of personnel. We don't actually have a funding problem, we have an implementation problem in terms of investment. We have not calculated the costs in this study and there are easier ways to implement a good cycling network: Marking out cycle paths on the road with red cycle lanes, for example, changing priority rules or introducing speed limits. If that were possible. We now have over 800 local authorities making representations to the federal government and saying that we would like to have a 30 km/h speed limit in city centres across the board without a safety check. That is not legally possible. This means that in addition to all the funding, we also need a reform of road traffic law. The local authorities' hands are tied to some extent.
TOUR: To make cycling safer, you have to take space away from motorised traffic?
Dr Claus Doll: That's how it is. We have limited space in the municipalities - so we end up talking about a redistribution of public space. But these debates are not new. In the 1980s, we had this huge wave of pedestrian zones in city centres. That was also a process of negotiation. We simply need to continue working on this and say: we need a bit more space for pedestrians and cyclists. And of course this is largely at the expense of car traffic. We are then not only talking about lanes, but also about car parks. This is a political minefield. You have to be very sensitive about how you go about it.
TOUR: A study on cycling is important, but how can you get support for these measures?
Dr Claus Doll: We have just conducted a series of interviews in seven European cities that have managed to reduce the number of cars in their city centres relatively quickly. One message we hear again and again is: start with the positive news. What do people gain from the reorganisation of cities? It's also about cities with more quality of life and quality of stay. That should basically be the first thing to be mentioned and not the prohibition argument.
TOUR: In your study on cycling, you emphasise that you need a good network of cycle paths and not just individual paths ...
Dr Claus Doll: The model for good cycle networks is perhaps the cycle network in Delft in the Netherlands. Many cities have also adopted this. They have started to plan in a hierarchical system of cycle paths, as we have been doing for car traffic for a long time. They basically have three levels: a main network with fast cycle routes, then a connecting network that is not quite as fast, but connects the individual city districts and then an access network. Individual cycle paths alone don't achieve much, but we need to have the feeling that we can get anywhere easily and safely by bike.
TOUR: Are there any international role models?
Dr Claus Doll: In Paris, Madrid, Barcelona and many Spanish cities, they have a vision of where they want to go. A vision of what the city should look like in 15 or 20 years. We miss that a bit in Germany. We have transport development plans everywhere, but they rarely include targets for where we want to go. Most people find it difficult to imagine how things could be different to how they are now. In the planning phase, in the construction phase, people are initially against it because their usual world view is shaken.
TOUR: Why is it easier to implement new concepts in Paris or Barcelona than in Germany?
Dr Claus Doll: Oh, there are many reasons. Paris in particular is an interesting example, as is Barcelona. They often have very, very strong mayors who have simply said: we can't go on like this, we're going to do things differently. If you want rapid change, you need strong political leadership. In Paris, you have the advantage over other French cities that the clientele is also one that supports such changes and then there is also the right marketing.
TOUR: In your study on cycling, you say that we need to promote a positive cycling culture. How can this be achieved?
Dr Claus Doll: First of all, as already mentioned, make cycling safer. Through better traffic conditions, 30 km/h for cars, for example, and rules that give priority to slow or unprotected traffic. Then through company mobility management, trying to encourage companies to promote commuting by bike. You need enough secure parking facilities so that people can say: I can really get around everywhere. I can do that, I can do that and I don't have to be afraid of having to park my bike. When I talk about parking facilities, they have to be linked to public transport. You can't make just any long journey by bike. These are many small steps, perhaps accompanied by public relations work by the local authorities.
TOUR: Surely it will be more difficult to promote cycling in the countryside?
Dr Claus Doll: In the countryside, the distances are longer, but not that much longer. Most journeys are made within individual neighbourhoods. Half of all car journeys are less than five kilometres and 11 percent of car journeys are less than one kilometre. You could easily do all that by bike.
TOUR: In your study on cycling, you calculate that up to 19 million tonnes of CO2 could be saved per year. As a layperson, it's difficult to estimate this figure ...
Dr Claus Doll: That's a lot of CO2 savings, but of course there is also a huge amount of investment behind it. But we have a few good arguments: more liveable communities and the second point is health. There are studies by the World Health Organisation that show that there are fewer cardiovascular diseases, and that relieves the burden on the healthcare system.
Background to the study on cycling - potential analysis
Germany has the potential to triple the share of cycling on routes up to 30 kilometres in length by 2035 and reduce local traffic emissions by 34 percent. 19 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents can be saved each year if cycle paths are developed excellently, good interfaces with buses and trains are created and municipalities are planned to be bicycle-friendly with short distances. These are the findings of a study by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, which the German Cycling Club ADFC has commissioned. An inviting cycling infrastructure, good interfaces to buses and trains and cycle-friendly municipalities are prerequisites for increasing the cycling mode share.
The ADFC used the study to make concrete demands:
- Political courage and the will to implement the rapid expansion of a continuous, safe and inviting cycle infrastructure in all German municipalities.
- Further develop the National Cycling Plan into an ambitious action plan for the Cycling Country Plus
- To create seamless cycle path networks nationwide by 2035 at the latest and to increase and secure long-term funding for this at federal, state and local level
- Implement the bicycle-friendly modernisation of road traffic law (StVG and StVO) and technical regulations
- Adopt mobility laws at state level to oblige local authorities to expand cycle path networks
Kristian Bauer
Editor
