To make the leap from toilet paper to bicycles, you have to remember what happened during the coronavirus pandemic. "For years, we sold around four million bikes a year in Germany. In 2020, sales increased by almost 20 per cent. Customers went to their first, second or third bike dealer and couldn't get a bike because everything was sold out. As a result, bike dealers sometimes ordered five times as many bikes," says Dirk Zedler, Deputy Chairman of the industry association Zukunft Fahrrad, looking back. The situation was exacerbated by delivery delays and production bottlenecks. Shimano sometimes had a delivery time of 1000 days for components. "By the time 2022 was being produced at full steam, manufacturers in Asia were not only producing the 2022 models, but also the 2023 models. Consumption then collapsed, partly as a result of gas prices, and bike shops were full. I know bike manufacturers who have erected marquees in their yards to store the bike boxes," says Zedler, summarising the situation. The comparison with toilet paper illustrates the basic problem: if you have bought a lot of toilet paper, you won't need any more for a while.
The decisive factor for the extent of the crisis is the structure of the Bicycle industryEurope orders parts or wheels in Asia, where they are produced. Around a year later, they are then delivered to Europe from Taiwan, Vietnam, China or other countries. And it gets even more complicated when you look at the details: Bike dealers order from the bike brands and they in turn place orders in Asia. So it has always been important to estimate sales trends well in advance. Toilet paper production can be controlled at short notice if too little was sold and ordered in the previous month - the bicycle industry thinks and works in model years. First there were disrupted supply chains, long production breaks and months later a significant overproduction, which led to an avalanche of deliveries from Asia in a short space of time. "There were manufacturers who had almost seven figures too many bikes," says Zedler.
Discount battle fuels the crisis
The inevitable consequence of this was the attempt to Discounts find buyers. "We suddenly had to deal with a huge overstock of goods, which led to prices falling as demand declined. There really were phases where you could buy bikes at 50, 60, 70 per cent discount," said Dominic Land, CEO Bike Components, looking back on the situation in the bike market in the Kassenzone Podcast 2025. The discount battle has affected almost everyone involved in the bike market. "Even the companies that don't have excess stock but can't get anything into the market now because the dealers are full of cheap goods are in trouble," says Zedler. "I think it affects everyone in the trade when really big companies advertise at 50 per cent," Uwe Wöll, Managing Director of VSF - Verbund Service & Fahrrad, confirms the situation. However, local bicycle retailers are being hit differently. A large bike dealer with permanent discounts in the neighbourhood is becoming a problem for some bike shops. In the best-case scenario, the fact that small bike dealers live primarily from service has a favourable effect - this means that an important sales factor is stable.
No end to the crisis
What is surprising, however, is how long the crisis has lasted and that it is still claiming victims: Last year, YT Industries, Syntace, HiBike Bär KG & HiBike GmbH, Sprick Cycle, 7Anna Group, Möve Mobility, Rad Power Bikes and Sushi Mobility, among others, had to file for insolvency - the bankruptcies of individual bike dealers are usually not even publicised. The road bike and gravel bike segments are doing very well, but because many retailers are broadly positioned, the situation still affects them: "Very few shops specialise only in the road bike and gravel segment," says Ulf-Christian Blume, from 53-ELF, a management consultancy for the bicycle industry. "If you talk to ZEG dealers who represent the ZEG programme, for example, things haven't gone so well this year. Some will probably have disproportionately full warehouses compared to independent dealers. As far as the chain stores are concerned, it's difficult to judge. However, if you look at the discount campaigns that chain stores have been running, including at the end of the year with 25-piece merchandise, then the pressure to act to raise liquidity seems to be enormous." There is also a mix of bike categories and therefore problems on the manufacturer side. Bad news also came from suppliers of sporty bikes: Scott was in need of a major cash injection, Simplon is also on a restructuring course, as is BMC. The bike mail order company Canyon had to record a further significant drop in sales in 2025 and announced on 20 January that it would be cutting up to 320 jobs to be cut. The component manufacturer Campagnolo has also announced job cuts - the exact number is currently being negotiated. "In 2023, 2024, people thought that things would recover quickly, that I would get out of it quickly and be able to work normally again. In 2025, we then realised that it was really tough and now it hurts," says Wöll. An economic crisis always leads to a market shakeout - those who are doing badly are particularly at risk. "The retailers we know who have gone bankrupt have really made mistakes on several levels over several years," says Wöll.
Lower sales and profit in the crisis
The general figures from the European bicycle market for the past year 2025 are not yet known, but a study by the consulting firm EY-Parthenon shows that 2024 was still a year of crisis. According to the study, the German bicycle market recorded an above-average decline in sales: compared to the previous year, sales fell by ten per cent to 6.3 billion euros. And this was due to the discount battle with lower prices and therefore lower profits. According to the study, the average price of an e-bike sold in Germany, for example, fell by ten per cent to €2,650. In addition, fewer e-bikes and bicycles were sold than in the previous year. So is the bicycle boom over before it has really begun? Was the hope of a mobility turnaround with strong growth in bicycle traffic just a utopian dream? While stock levels in the automotive industry, for example, are easy to estimate, production figures and inventories in the bicycle industry are largely unknown. At the beginning of the crisis, optimistic statements by bicycle brands prevented the seriousness of the situation from being recognised. Many experts misjudged the stock situation and declared an end to the crisis far too early. "The reduction in stocks is taking much, much longer than most people think," says Uwe Wöll from VSF, summarising the problem.
Warehouse still not empty
Wöll reminds us once again in which bike segment the biggest problems lie: "When we talk about stock levels and stock pressure, we are primarily talking about e-bikes. Gravel bikes and road bikes are selling well - it's not about them at all." However, the success of these two categories is also having an impact on the mountain bike sector: "Road bikes and gravel bikes have cannibalised mountain bikes," Zedler notes. Because the MTB is now primarily electric, there are a particularly large number of hardtails in stock. As stocks are still not completely depleted, the question arises as to whether the bikes will find any buyers at all. Can the old models still hold their own against the new ones? Opinions differ here. Wöll sees no problem here. "In the road bike sector, we would have a problem with models that are three or four years old. It's different in the e-bike sector, where consumers have different requirements. The technology has to work, the bike has to suit them." Zedler takes a more critical view: "The gear manufacturers have brought out a new generation, the motor manufacturers have brought out a new generation - the goods haven't got any better." And he is aware of another problem: manufacturers who have to re-produce old frames because they still have motors lying around that no longer fit the new ones. "In the past, the frame and the components were the value-creating factor in bicycles. Today, the battery and the motor clearly dominate the value of the electric bike."
Liquidity exacerbates the crisis
The biggest problem with high stock levels is liquidity. Ideally, goods are purchased, the money is advanced and the till is replenished when the goods are sold. The longer wheels or other items remain in stock, the more problematic financing becomes. "Banks are no longer prepared to finance a transition easily. And suddenly some dealers and suppliers are up to their necks in water," says Wöll. "For me, it's an unprecedented level of business closures," says Blume, confirming the dramatic situation in 2025. The fact that the crisis in retail in 2025 has worsened rather than eased is due to the unwholesome combination of price pressure, full warehouses, weak demand and also home-made problems: "When things were going very well, many retailers didn't look too closely when there were cost increases. Service contracts were concluded, staff were hired or additional space was rented. Then, on the one hand, you have too few sales with too little margin and, on the other, too high costs. And that, of course, doubles the effect on the economic result," says management consultant Blume, describing a common problem.
Bicycle market continues with high sales
Despite the decline, the German bicycle market remains by far the largest sales market in Europe: with a total volume of 6.3 billion euros, sales in Germany were significantly higher than in Italy, the second-largest market (2.6 billion euros, sales at the previous year's level), and France (2.0 billion euros, down eight per cent), according to EY. With the exception of Italy, all European core markets recorded a drop in sales last year. According to EY, the total turnover generated by the bicycle industry across Europe shrank by six per cent to 18.1 billion euros. Despite all the poor figures, one thing should not be forgotten: even in 2024, sales of bicycles in Germany were still higher than in the pre-coronavirus year of 2019. The bicycle is therefore by no means a discontinued model - rather, the crazy market movements and wrong decisions have led individual companies to insolvency.
A look into the future
What's next for the cycling industry? In the long term, there is no doubt that the prospects are good: "We are dealing with a growth market across Europe and in the medium term; we expect turnover to grow from the current 18.1 billion euros to 22.0 billion euros by 2030," says Constantin Gall, Head of Mobility at EY, looking to the future. He is particularly optimistic about the e-bike sector. "The bicycle industry is going through a phase of professionalisation," is Gall's assessment of the consolidation. In the short term, the situation remains complicated. For the Global Bicycle Purchasing Index (GBPI), the IFH Cologne market research institute surveys the current mood among buyers and product managers in the bicycle industry. There was positive feedback in June 2025 - optimism was finally spreading again. This was also reflected in increased sales among manufacturers in Taiwan. In November 2025, the picture changed again: 66 per cent of respondents rated the situation in the industry as poor or very poor and almost a third even expected it to deteriorate further compared to the previous year.
Will the crisis be over by 2026?
However, there is hope with regard to the burdensome stock levels: "We can demonstrably say with our retailers that stock levels really did fall significantly at the end of the year. Liquidity is being restored and it is now possible to gradually reorder and purchase goods from suppliers. So the situation is normalising. It will take some time, but it is normalising," says Wöll optimistically. Blume is much more concerned about the current financial year: "The people who already have no real liquidity will have an extremely difficult time. There will be a consolidation process that we probably haven't seen before. That's my forecast, at least for the first two quarters." A bad sign for him is that the bike leasing market is also weakening. Zedler also takes a critical view of the future: "I fear that the crisis will continue for a while yet. I am very worried that it will get worse. In 2025, there was little good weather during the typical sales season - we all have to hope that there will be good cycling weather in 2026." Spring cycling weather in Europe is so important for bike sales that it is even mentioned in the reports of companies in Taiwan. All racing cyclists are happy to join in the wish for good cycling weather. The hope is that 2026 will be a successful cycling year for everyone and that bikes will never again be compared to toilet paper.
Kristian Bauer
Editor
