Donald Trump's unpredictable trade policy is causing concern around the world. At the moment, Trump is focussing on the conflict with China - for the time being, he has suspended other tariff increases. In terms of trade volume, the bicycle industry is not very important globally, but it would also suffer from rising import duties. Industry representatives in the USA fear rising costs, job losses and disruptions in global supply chains as a result of higher import tariffs. Trump's tariff policy is wide-ranging and targets numerous trading partners, including important production countries for the bicycle industry such as China, Taiwan and Vietnam, as well as sales markets such as Canada and European nations. With his decision on 9 April, Trump increased tariffs for China - the higher tariffs for other countries have been suspended for the time being. Industry experts fear a domino effect from the tariffs, which could impact not only manufacturers, but also retailers and ultimately consumers. However, the bicycle industry in the USA is particularly threatened.
Bicycle industry fears decline in sales
Trek estimated that the proposed 25 per cent tariff on imports of e-bikes and their motors from China would cause annual costs of at least 30 million US dollars and would probably lead to a significant loss of jobs in Wisconsin. At an official hearing before the International Trade Commission in Washington, Trek Vice President Bob Burns warned of the consequences: The increase in the price of imported goods would have immediate consequences for Trek's profitability and could force the company to raise prices or reduce operating costs, which in turn could lead to layoffs. Trek is already feeling the effects: after the USA made energy imports from Canada more expensive, the Canadian side increased the import duty on sporting goods. This shows how tariffs can lead to countermeasures that further complicate international trade and potentially severely impact companies with complex supply chains. In response to the rising tariffs, Trek moved some of its production out of China and temporarily stockpiled bicycles made in the US to avoid the tariffs. Trek President John Burke had already addressed Donald Trump in an open letter in March and criticised his political guidelines: "If we want to lead the world, we need friends," was one of his statements.
Bankruptcies feared in the USA
The US dealer association NBDA explained: "The proposed tariffs would lead to retail price increases of over 25 per cent and potentially a 15 per cent drop in sales, which could lead to many retailers going bankrupt." Specialized Bicycle Components is also facing challenges due to the import tariffs. As the company sources frames and components from Taiwan, a country with a large trade surplus with the USA, the company would be affected by the planned tariffs. Bob Margevicius, Executive Vice President of Specialized, warned that the US bicycle industry could become collateral damage in the trade war. In a statement on the NBDA dealer association website, he explained: "The 25 per cent tariff on bicycles, bicycle components and bicycle safety accessories - will have catastrophic consequences for the US bicycle market." What concerns the industry are the constant changes. What was confirmed as immovable on 8 April is already history again on 9 April. Obviously the headwind was too great for Trump - he is focussing entirely on the conflict with China. The other tariffs have been suspended for the time being. The stock market celebrated the move with exploding share prices - for individual companies, the dilemma of a lack of planning certainty remains.
Existential fears at Tern Bicycles
For Tern Bicycles, a Taiwan-based company that assembles its e-cargo bikes in Vietnam for the US market, the planned "reciprocal tariffs" pose an existential threat. The company would face customs duties of one million US dollars as tariffs on e-bikes from Vietnam rose from zero to 46 per cent and on standard bikes to 57 per cent. Steve Boyd, Tern's General Manager for North America, described the situation as "unsustainable" and called on the industry to engage with its political representatives. The decision on 9 April to suspend the increase in tariffs for the time being gives time for negotiations.
The stock market is not sure whether Trump will withdraw the tariffs after all. The U-turn on 9 April gives investors hope. However, analysts are warning of the potential consequences of trade barriers. The consequences would be noticeable for Shimano, for example, which operates production facilities in countries such as China, Singapore and Malaysia. However, the North American sales market plays a subordinate role for Shimano. North America only accounts for around 5.6 per cent of turnover. By comparison, 54 per cent of revenue in 2024 was generated from sales in Europe. For consumers in the USA, the price increase can hardly be avoided: SRAM also produces in China and is therefore affected by higher import duties. The Taiwan Bicycle Association (TBA) fears the impact of US tariffs on the Taiwanese bicycle industry. The chairman of the TBA, Robert Wu, called on the Taiwanese government to reduce taxes in order to support bicycle manufacturers.
German bicycle industry hardly affected by tariffs
Presumably, it will be a lot easier for consumers, manufacturers and bike dealers in Europe There will be hardly any impact from the trade conflict. Products from US brands are mostly manufactured in Asia and the customs situation will not change for direct imports to Europe. At most, there could be indirect consequences if more products reach the European market due to falling demand in the USA. Since the European bicycle market has been in a slump recently, this would definitely not be a good development. For the German bicycle industry, however, the USA is not a very important sales market. Burkhard Stork from ZIV - Die Fahrradindustrie explained to the industry service Velobiz: "With a turnover of just under 8 million euros, US e-bike exports are a small niche market." The market significance of the USA for the German bicycle industry is low - but the higher tariffs can be noticeable for individual companies. The Koblenz-based mail-order company Canyon, for example, has expanded its business in the USA in recent years. But in the world of Donald Trump's "deals", anything is possible - perhaps all the threatened tariffs will be quickly forgotten if he faces too much headwind from his own country.
Kristian Bauer
Editor
