The decisive phase of the 2026 Vuelta begins in El Puerto de Santa María on the Gulf of Cádiz. This is where the 32.1-kilometre individual time trial starts, a stage that is expected to shake up the top of the general classification ahead of the tour’s final two mountain stages.
Overall, the route is not particularly technically demanding; it features many long straights and, after the start, mainly heads north-east. It is only the final kilometres in Jerez de la Frontera – where a Vuelta stage is finishing for the 13th time – that deviate from this general route.
On this relatively non-technical route, aerodynamics therefore play a major role. And so, in all likelihood, does the wind. The Levante – a warm, often strong easterly wind in the western Mediterranean and the Strait of Gibraltar – could prove to be a decisive factor. Elevation gain is hardly a factor. There are just over 200 metres of elevation gain to cover, the majority of which is around the second timing point at km 22.1, where there is a small climb to tackle in two stages. However, you don’t need to be a climber to cope with it.
The second time trial, following the opening time trial in Monaco, could prove to be the deciding factor in the battle for the red jersey. Whilst the time trial could prove to be the final stumbling block for the current overall leader, Enric Mas (Movistar Team), and could also cost Felix Gall (Decathlon CMA CGM) at least second place, for Primož Roglič (Red Bull – BORA – hansgrohe), it is his last chance to perhaps don the red jersey after all.
The Slovenian is normally by far the best time-trialist of the top three, but he would need to make up at least 2 minutes and 10 seconds on Mas just to take the lead in the first place. That’s not out of the question. In reality, however, he would also need a cushion to take into the final two mountain stages. And given that Mas has already shown he’s in his element on the climbs whilst wearing the red jersey, the same could well happen on the time trial bike. As for Gall, who is the least impressive of the three against the clock, Roglic is only four seconds behind him. Making up two minutes on the Austrian could well be a realistic prospect.
Roglic is also in contention for the stage win after almost three weeks – just like his team-mate Finn Fisher-Black. Stefan Küng (Tudor Pro Cycling Team) is also among the contenders, as are Bruno Armirail (Team Visma | Lease a Bike), Ivo Oliveira (UAE Team Emirates – XRG) and Iván Romeo (Movistar Team). As for Ethan Hayter (Soudal Quick-Step), who to kick off the season in Monaco If he was only a few hundredths of a second slower than the winner, Tadej Pogacar, the course is probably a little too long.